[6] The probability of two consecutive years of success is no higher than .50 times .50, or .25. The problem in all of these cases is that the explanation does no work. Unlike the case of Halleys comet, the observable outcomesa blue anchor on his hand, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, an air of commandare where the reasoning begins. e. b and c, a. athletes view aggressive acts that would be judged inappropriate in society in general as more appropriate in the sport environment, The research examining the relationship between aggression and performance supports which conclusion? So the logic of the burglar argument is shown to be weak. The logic of the argument is accordingly weak. When was psychology accepted as an academic discipline? As a useful standard, apply the surprise test by asking whether the outcome would surprise you (assuming you reserved judgment about whether the explanation were true and whether the outcome had been observed). The plumber says he went to a house, while the man says he lives in an apartment; how often does someone make that sort of mistake? In science, theories tend to be ___________ than hypotheses. c. students with good leadership and communication skills Before experimental drugs can be brought to market, they must undergo many rigorous trials to ensure they deliver their medical benefits effectively and safely. By sheer coincidence, a few of these thousands of dreams are going to seem to come true, and these are the ones that will stick most vividly in my memory (remember the vividness shortcut from Chapter 1). So the outcome probably would be true even if the gods explanation were false, and the argument is logically extremely weak. Web16.4 Summary of Chapter Sixteen. Included among your background evidence may be a belief that already serves as a perfectly good explanation for the outcomein which case, you would expect the outcome anyway. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. But the theory of plate tectonics eventually provided a conceptual framework for continental drift, and the explanation no longer has an unacceptably low prior probability. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. Statistics and Probability questions and answers, Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Where in the tropics could an English army doctor have seen much hardship and got his arm wounded? S2 Biology; Chapter 6-the tour of the cell, Chapter 10: The Origins and Diversification o, CoffeebeansaddedduringMay,10,900pounds, Elliot Aronson, Robin M. Akert, Timothy D. Wilson. For any explanation you can ask whether it makes sensethat is, whether there is an adequate conceptual framework to account for the causal mechanisms required by the explanation. Why would a scientist choose to state their hypothesis as a null hypothesis? Muluple Choice Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. 1& 0\\ Sample answer. The increases to Work in Process-Roasting Department for Highlands Coffee Company for May as well as information concerning production are as follows: Workinprocess,May1,1,150pounds,40%completed$1,700CoffeebeansaddedduringMay,10,900pounds28,600ConversioncostsduringMay12,504Workinprocess,May31,800pounds,80%completedGoodsfinishedduringMay,11,250pounds\begin{array}{lr}\text { Work in process, May 1, 1,150 pounds, } 40 \% \text { completed } & \$\hspace{10pt}1,700 \\ \text { Coffee beans added during May, 10,900 pounds } & 28,600 \\ \text { Conversion costs during May } & 12,504 \\ \text { Work in process, May 31, } 800 \text { pounds, } 80 \% \text { completed } & - \\ \text { Goods finished during May, } 11,250 \text { pounds } & -\end{array} Higher expectations by teachers and by themselves causes students to perform better. Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that This supports which theory of aggression? . Webe. They want to show how tough they are. The girls explored the area on ____ bicycles. Here is one of the classic exchanges:[4], Dear Abby: Im a traveling man whos on the road five days a week. Which of the following shows the correct order for a scientific explanation? This is a way of emphasizing the importance of an improbable outcome. WebWhich of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Is the if-clause intended to provide a better causal understanding of the then-clause? d. a and b Normally scientists can trace meteorites back to comets and asteroids, debris left over from the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. A hypothesis that proposes a lack of relationship between two factors. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method Like their close cousins, inductive generalizations, explanatory arguments aim to expand our knowledge. b. WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? d. all of the above How often do plumbers leave water spraying everywhere rather than turning it offif not at the faucet, then at the main? Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Be more suspicious of explanatory arguments in which the explanation was invented after the observable outcome was observed. In a scientific trial, some participants are given a pill that looks identical to a pill that contains the active ingredient being studied in the trial, but contains no active ingredient itself. d. First, its conclusionthat we are above sea levelis an explanation. As with our other inductive arguments, the total evidence condition for logical success has two parts. Note that I am being careful not to say that coincidence is thus proven to be the correct explanation; the point, a more modest one, is that skill is not supported as the correct explanation. The line on the chart, I argue, does pass through the six plotted points but otherwise zigzags wildly, say, as follows. He claims he has no knowledge of the Molotov cocktail. , For many years, ship captains navigating the waters of Antarctica have been intrigued by rare sightings of emerald icebergs. Thousands of lives are going to be wrecked over this. At least one source of income was going to be wrecked. My friend was right. It has long been my suspicion that, especially in Washington, when people say that they have read a book, they mean something other than attempting to glean meaning from each sentence. You never talked about him like he was a heronever made any effort to keep his memory alive with letters and pictures. OK, so shes not admitting to anything, but the next day when I went to get the pipe, it wasnt where I had put it! Ive really slimmed down. WebIntrospection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. Rabinoff.). [5] A graph of these results, representing our evidence in this case, looks like this. First: make observations; Last: Interpret data. Frustration produces increased anger or pain. b. Rather, it is simply necessary that it not be implausibly low and that it be higher than that of the leading alternative explanations. For explanatory arguments there are two main parts to the total evidence condition: the outcome must be sufficiently improbable and the explanation must be sufficiently probable. An inactive substance used in controlled experiments to test the effectiveness of another substance; the treatment group receives the substance being tested, and the control group receives the placebo. Aggression facilitates performance. His argument would gain some logical strength if, when we looked for them, we could find sexual images in advertisements more often than we find them in the clouds. I offer the observable outcome that I walk around on the ground while I wear the shoes. The conceptual framework was eventually supplied: the most important causal mechanism behind it is gravity, and, according to the eventually well-established Newtonian laws, gravitys pull on the air molecules decreases regularly as distance from Earth increases. I couldnt believe it was a fire. Another is to ask whether it predicts the smoothest curve. In others, the outcome is first observed, then the explanation is invented to account for it; although these are subject to exactly the same evaluative conditions as the first sort, we can more easily be fooled by them. Falsifiabilitythe requirement that it be possible to specify some observable outcome of an explanation that could prove it to be false. WebShort Answer. It is the best understanding that we have of that part of the natural world. The term prior, in this case, means that the probability calculation must be done prior to your making any judgment about the explanation itself and prior to your making any observations pertinent to the observable outcome. The leading alternative explanation is that the manager has succeeded by sheer luck. The lad said that Suzy and the hired man were up in the hayloftthat Suzy had her dress up and the hired man had lowered his trousers. It always does reappear after an eclipse when much noise occurs. c. with the intent to harm psychologically. The second premise states that the observable outcome has happenedthat it has been observed. To return to an earlier case, no lesser a light than Thomas Jefferson, when he heard the reports of meteorites from Harvard and Brown professors, said, I would rather believe that the Yankee professors lied than that stones fall from the heavens. This was probably reasonable as an initial reactionthough, in this case, the high standards were eventually met. Favor outcomes that would falsify alternative explanations. Vague outcomes are likely to have a high prior probability and thus are likely to signal that the argument is logically weak. If you are like most people you suggest, Eight is in the set. And my reply is that yes, 8 is included, because I am thinking of the set of all whole numbers. Ask whether an explanation for the outcome already exists. d. causing mental or physical harm to another person regardless of the intent of the act As we have seen, explanations that make good sense are those for which we have an adequate conceptual frameworkfor which we have a reasonably good account of the causal mechanisms involved. B. Scott Jones, a staff member for U.S. The first part of the total evidence condition is that the observable outcome must have a low prior epistemic probability. They took me off all of them and since then Ive had no attacks. d. internal versus external d. all of the above Your first thought would probably be that this supports the explanation that we are sometimes able to see into the future via our dreams. There was no control group with which to compare his patients who received the treatment. a. with the intent to harm physically. Which aspect of the scientific method occurs first? Which of the following is (are) NOT among criteria for judging aggression? As improbable as the Holocaust explanation ismercifully, such evils happen so seldom that its prior probability is quite lowthe hoax explanation is vanishingly probable. c. Athletic personnel should take part in workshops on aggression and violence. 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